Reform councillors told to describe donations inquiry as establishment stitch-up

About the role

Reform UK has instructed its councillors to describe a police investigation into donations from the mother of George Cottrell as an establishment stitch-up, as polling showed the party's popularity plummeting.

Internal directives

• Internal briefing documents circulated to the party's councillors included instructions to respond to questions about a Metropolitan police investigation into party donations with: "It is now clear that the establishment will try anything to stop us"
• Local government representatives were also instructed to respond to questions with: "The British people are tired of the establishment media doing anything they can to stop Reform. A daily routine of hit jobs and smears will not deter us from winning the next general election and fixing broken Britain."

Investigations and donations

• Police are investigating donations worth £500,000 made to Reform UK by Fiona Cottrell, the mother of the crypto-gambler and convicted fraudster "Posh George", who is a close friend of Farage
• The Guardian revealed in April that the Reform UK leader had received a £5m gift from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne before the last election, which is currently subject to standards inquiry
• The Conservatives have also asked HMRC to investigate whether Farage should have paid tax on the £5m gift
• Farage is also subject to another inquiry over allegations that he breached parliamentary rules by being financially supported by Cottrell

Polling data

• New polling by YouGov shows that Nigel Farage's popularity has plummeted, falling to the joint lowest level in the decade it has been tracked by the pollster
• Only 22% of people have a positive view of Farage, while 68% see him in a negative light – a net favourability rating of -46
• YouGov said the figure was on a par with figures recorded by Boris Johnson after the first "partygate" revelations had broken (-42 in early December 2021) and Keir Starmer just before his resignation (-45)
• The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, is also enjoying popularity levels higher than those of any Conservative leader for more than five years, according to the survey
• Separate polling by More in Common indicated that Burnham's personal approval rating is already higher after a week in office than Starmer ever achieved
• The new prime minister has a net approval rating of +13, with a blitz of voter-pleasing policies appearing to have given a boost to the former mayor of Greater Manchester

Voting intention

• YouGov's latest voting-intention poll for the Times and Sky News showed that Labour and the Tories are now within touching distance of Reform UK
• Labour appears to be enjoying a "Burnham bounce", with the party at its most popular since January
• It shows Labour just two points behind Reform – with Farage's party on 23% of the vote, Labour on 21% and the Conservatives on 20%
• YouGov gives Labour its highest figure recorded by the pollsters since January, up five points from the 16% low recorded for the party four times between March and early May this year
• The polling continues to show a tightening between the three parties
• In the aftermath of May's local elections, Reform UK polled a 28% vote share, giving them an 11-point lead over any other party

Government policy announcements

• In his first cabinet meeting, Burnham promised to lead a "cost of living government", and has used a string of early morning announcements to grab the public's attention
• His first major announcement since taking office was a cut to VAT on electricity bills from October, before capping bus fares at £2 and giving pubs, clubs and live music venues a 20% discount on their business rates bills as part of a £100m aid package
• Burnham has faced questions about how these measures will be paid for, but the new administration insists all measures are fully funded