Senior Manager - Strategic Forecast

About the role

The Senior Manager, Strategic Forecasting will play a critical role in shaping business decisions for one of the company’s fastest-growing categories. This position is responsible for developing short-, medium-, and long-term demand forecasts by translating market trends, consumer insights, commercial strategies, and business drivers into actionable recommendations. Working cross-functionally with Marketing, Finance, Trade Marketing, Revenue Growth Management, Supply Chain, and Insights teams, the successful candidate will leverage advanced analytics, forecasting methodologies, and data-driven insights to support strategic planning, innovation, and new product launches. This is a high-visibility role requiring strong quantitative capabilities, business acumen, and the ability to influence senior stakeholders while thriving in a fast-paced, evolving, and ambiguous business environment.

Responsibilities

• Lead the development and delivery of short-term and long-term demand forecasts for the Modern Oral/Nicotine Pouch category, translating market trends and business strategies into actionable volume projections.
• Collaborate closely with Marketing, Trade, Finance, Supply Chain, RGM, and Insights teams to gather inputs and align forecast assumptions across the business.
• Develop forecast assumptions based on internal and external business drivers, including market trends, competitive activity, pricing, innovation, and consumer insights.
• Develop scenario analyses and business cases, identifying risks, opportunities, and potential impacts to support strategic decision-making.
• Leverage advanced analytics, statistical forecasting techniques, and AI/ML capabilities to improve forecast quality and support decision making.
• Support innovation and new product launches (NPI) by translating launch assumptions, adoption curves, and commercial strategies into volume forecasts and scenarios.
• Communicate forecast assumptions, insights, risks, and recommendations to senior leadership, influencing business and commercial decisions through clear storytelling and executive-level presentations.
• Monitor forecast performance and continuously improve forecasting methodologies, identifying variances and driving actions to enhance forecast accuracy and planning effectiveness.

Requirements

• Bachelor’s degree required in Business, Statistics, Economics, Finance, Analytics, or a related quantitative discipline.
• 3+ years of experience in forecasting, demand planning, analytics, finance, insights, strategy, or other quantitative-focused roles.
• Strong quantitative and analytical background with the ability to translate data into actionable business recommendations.
• Advanced Excel skills are required; strong PowerPoint and data storytelling capabilities are highly valued.
• Experience with statistical forecasting methodologies, predictive analytics, and AI/ML applications to support forecasting accuracy and business decision-making.
• Ability to thrive in ambiguous, fast-changing, and emerging business environments where decisions must be made with limited historical data.
• Proven ability to influence and collaborate with cross-functional stakeholders across Marketing, Trade Marketing, Finance, RGM, Supply Chain, and Insights teams.
• Self-starter with strong ownership, accountability, executive presence, and excellent communication skills, capable of presenting recommendations and insights to senior leadership.

Benefits

• 401(k) plan with company match of 100% of employee pre-tax/Roth contributions up to six percent, plus an additional 3% company contribution regardless of participation.
• Comprehensive health and welfare benefits package (medical, dental, vision, and prescription drugs).
• Health Savings Account start-up contribution for employees who elect the high-deductible health plan.
• Flexible spending accounts for both Health Care and Dependent Care.
• Employee assistance program offering 8 free counseling sessions per issue each calendar year for employees and their dependents.
• Company-paid life insurance of 1x annual base pay ($50,000 minimum).
• Company-paid accidental death or dismemberment insurance of 2x annual base pay ($50,000 minimum).
• Voluntary insurances at group rates: employee and dependent life insurance, AD&D insurance, critical illness, accident coverage, disability buy-up, and auto & home insurance.
• Tuition reimbursement and student loan support.
• Dependent Scholarship Programs.
• Free confidential personal financial counseling service.
• Charitable giving matching grants program.
• Health-care concierge service.
• Volunteer service opportunities and extensive training opportunities.
• Company vehicle for eligible employees.
• Mobile phone allowance for eligible employees.
• Paid leave including sick and personal time, vacation (15–25 days based on level), holidays (9 company-recognized + 2 personal), parental leave, funeral leave, short-term and long-term disability leave, jury duty leave, military leave, and community outreach leave.