Retail Sales Forecasting Manager

About the role

We are seeking a strategic, analytically driven Retail Sales Forecasting Manager to own revenue forecasting and channel performance analysis across our retail and wholesale business.

Responsibilities

• Own end-to-end sales forecasting across all retail and wholesale channels — maintaining rolling 12–18 month revenue forecasts by account, channel, and SKU.
• Build and manage a bottoms-up forecast process grounded in pipeline data, sell-through trends, promotional calendars, and retailer replenishment patterns — aligned to top-down revenue targets.
• Partner with Key Account Managers and the Sr Director of Sales to capture account-level commitments and promotional sell-in assumptions that roll up to total revenue projections.
• Develop statistical and judgmental forecasting models incorporating seasonality, product lifecycle stages, and channel-specific velocity patterns across supplements, proteins, and RTD beverages.
• Own forecast accuracy and bias reporting — analyzing variance, identifying root causes, and continuously refining models to improve planning precision.
• Build scenario-based revenue forecasts (base, upside, downside) for executive planning, budget cycles, and investor reporting.
• Lead channel-level planning for all retail and wholesale accounts — building forward-looking volume and revenue plans that reflect sell-in commitments, promotional activity, and distribution gains.
• Manage wholesale channel forecasting with broker and distributor partners (Acosta, UNFI, KeHé, and convenience distributors) — aligning on volume expectations, order timing, and distribution targets.
• Maintain visibility into retailer POS data, syndicated data (SPINS, IRI/Circana), and distributor shipment reports to identify sell-through trends and distribution gaps — updating forecasts and informing account strategy accordingly.
• Translate commercial commitments into channel-level forecast inputs for Supply Chain, Operations, and Retail Demand Planning — ensuring supply can support the sales plan.
• Represent the Sales organization in S&OP cycles — presenting the commercial demand view, surfacing forecast risks and opportunities, and driving alignment between sales commitments and operational capacity.
• Prepare and present demand review packages including forecast updates by channel, volume variance analysis, promotional pipeline, and risk/opportunity summaries.
• Bridge Sales and Operations in S&OP — translating pipeline and promotional commitments into demand signals for Supply Chain and Finance, and advocating for the commercial plan when supply constraints arise.
• Drive continuous improvement of S&OP processes, including commercial data inputs, forecast templates, and cross-functional accountability standards.
• Own the sales forecasting dashboard — delivering regular visibility into forecast accuracy, channel revenue performance, sell-through, promotional lift, and distribution progress.
• Build and maintain account and channel scorecards tracking revenue vs. plan, unit velocity, promotional ROI, and key commercial KPIs.
• Analyze syndicated data and retailer POS data to surface competitive category context, share-of-shelf insights, and velocity benchmarks that inform account planning.
• Deliver ad hoc revenue and channel analyses for new business pitches, budget reviews, product launches, and executive reporting.
• Partner with Finance on revenue planning, budget vs. forecast reconciliation, and financial modeling of trade spend, slotting, and promotional support by channel.
• Collaborate with Marketing to integrate promotional calendars and launch plans into channel-level forecasts.
• Work with Supply Chain, Operations, and Retail Demand Planning to communicate demand implications of account commitments, distribution gains, and promotional events.
• Support the Sales team in retail sell-in preparation by providing account-level volume projections and launch sizing estimates for line review submissions.
• Track and manage sales-side chargebacks and deductions — including OTIF penalties, compliance violations, and pricing discrepancies — in partnership with Finance and Logistics.
• Maintain visibility into retailer compliance requirements and deduction history, providing the Sales team with account-level risk summaries and corrective action recommendations.

Qualifications

• Education & Experience: Bachelor’s degree in Business, Sales Management, Marketing, Supply Chain, Finance, or related field. 7–10+ years of CPG experience with a strong focus on sales forecasting, revenue planning, and retail/wholesale channel management. 5+ years at a nationally distributed food, supplement, or beverage company with proven forecasting experience across mass retail, natural/specialty grocery, club, and/or convenience channels. Expert-level sales forecasting experience — bottoms-up account forecasting, top-down budget reconciliation, and scenario-based planning in a CPG or consumer brand setting. Hands-on experience with wholesale distributors and broker networks (UNFI, KeHé, Acosta, or comparable). Experience in S&OP as the commercial demand representative, including demand review ownership and consensus forecasting. Background in health, wellness, supplement, protein, or RTD/beverage categories strongly preferred.
• Technical Skills: Advanced Excel and ERP/planning system experience (NetSuite, SAP, or similar); hands-on experience with S&OP or IBP platforms (SAP IBP, Kinaxis, O9, Anaplan, or comparable). Experience with retailer portals and replenishment systems (Retail Link, Target POL, 1WorldSync, or similar). Proficiency with syndicated data platforms (SPINS, IRI/Circana) and strong data visualization and reporting skills. Familiarity with EDI transaction sets (850, 856, 810, 846) is a plus.
• Soft Skills: Commercially minded with a sales-side orientation — motivated by forecast accuracy, revenue growth, and enabling the Sales team to win. Expert cross-functional communicator, equally comfortable with retail buyers, executive leadership, and day-to-day operations partners. Highly analytical and detail-oriented with the discipline to manage multiple accounts, channels, and forecast cycles simultaneously. Strong influencer — able to drive alignment across Sales, Finance, Marketing, Supply Chain, and Retail Demand Planning around a single commercial plan. Comfortable with ambiguity and fast-moving priorities in a high-growth CPG environment.