Prediction Market Expert

Prediction Market Expert (AI Research) About The Role We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals to join a remote AI research project focused on structured forecasting and probability analysis. Your expertise in evaluating real-world events will directly help train and improve AI models that reason about uncertainty. If you follow geopolitics, financial markets, elections, sports, or major world events — and you think in probabilities — this role was made for you. Type: Hourly ContractLocation: Fully RemoteCommitment: Flexible hours, work on your own schedule What You'll Do Assess and forecast the outcomes of real-world, industry, and market eventsAssign well-reasoned probability estimates grounded in current events and public informationArticulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in structured annotation formatsReview and evaluate prediction-related data for accuracy and consistencyInterpret rapidly evolving news cycles and intelligence signalsMaintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks Who You Are Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not just certaintiesUp-to-date on current events, market trends, or geopolitical developmentsAble to articulate your reasoning clearly in writingDetail-oriented and consistent in your analytical approachFamiliar with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) — a plus, but not requiredSelf-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment Nice to Have Background in finance, economics, political science, statistics, or journalismExperience participating in forecasting tournaments or prediction platformsFamiliarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques Why Join Us Work on cutting-edge AI research with real-world impactFully remote and flexible — work when it suits youFreelance autonomy with the opportunity for ongoing contract workContribute your unique analytical perspective to advance AI reasoning capabilitiesJoin a global community of domain experts shaping the future of AI