Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting

About the role

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey.

Position: Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk

Type: Contract

Location: Remote

Compensation

$150–$250 per hour

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market‑implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model‑generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.
• Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while improving AI model performance.

Qualifications

Must‑Have

• Local political analysts with hands‑on experience on specific races in swing states.
• On‑the‑ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment.
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• 8+ years of direct experience or equivalent performance.

Preferred Experience

• Experience in political science departments and survey research centers at universities in target states.
• State and regional pollsters, state‑level campaign and party analytics teams.
• Decision desks or race‑ratings outlets with state‑specific coverage.
• National forecasting or political‑risk experience with deep knowledge of a specific state.

Not a fit

• Profiles with experience mainly in international politics, geopolitics, or country risk.
• Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover.
• Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
• Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races.