Pharma Commercial Forecasting Expert - Launch Curves

This role is for one of our clients.

Compensation

$130-$210 per hour

About the role

We are seeking experienced pharma commercial and forecasting professionals to support an expert human-evaluation project focused on commercial drugs and drug-development programs. You will help create and critique structured evaluation rubrics that assess the quality, realism, and defensibility of pharmaceutical commercial forecasts and launch assumptions. This opportunity is designed for professionals with hands-on experience in pharma commercial strategy, forecasting, analytics, or sales who understand how drug launches translate into real-world uptake and market performance.

Responsibilities

• Create and critique objective, high-quality rubrics for evaluating commercial drugs and drug-development programs
• Build, review, and pressure-test drug launch curves, including uptake trajectories, market penetration, peak share, and time-to-peak assumptions
• Evaluate whether commercial forecasting assumptions are realistic and supported by appropriate evidence
• Assess the use of analog products, launch ramps, peak sales expectations, competitive dynamics, and loss-of-exclusivity considerations
• Identify overly optimistic, conservative, or unsupported assumptions within commercial forecasts
• Apply commercial forecasting expertise across a defined set of pharmaceutical launches and therapeutic areas
• Provide clear, evidence-based reasoning for conclusions and recommendations

Requirements

• 5+ years of professional experience in pharmaceutical commercial forecasting, analytics, commercial strategy, or a closely related field
• Experience working in pharma commercial organizations, including sales, forecasting, analytics, market strategy, or launch planning
• Strong familiarity with biotech and pharmaceutical development programs
• Hands-on experience building, reviewing, or critiquing drug launch, uptake, or sales forecasting models
• Understanding of key commercial forecasting concepts, including market sizing, patient uptake, analog selection, market share, launch ramp, peak penetration, and loss of exclusivity
• Strong analytical and critical-thinking skills with the ability to distinguish defensible assumptions from unsupported estimates
• Excellent written communication skills and the ability to clearly explain commercial forecasting judgments

Preferred Qualifications

• Experience supporting pharmaceutical product launches or pre-launch commercial planning
• Background in pharma sales, commercial analytics, forecasting, or business strategy
• Experience evaluating competitive landscapes, market dynamics, and product positioning
• Familiarity with forecasting methodologies, launch analogs, scenario analysis, and revenue modeling
• Prior experience with AI evaluation, training-data, or human-data projects is a plus

Schedule

Approximately 10-20 hours over a 1-2 week pilot

Pay

Payments are made weekly via Stripe or Wise based on services rendered.

Engagement Details

• Work Arrangement: Fully remote
• Location: United States
• Engagement Type: Independent contractor
• Potential: Strong contributors may be considered for recurring engagements as the work expands

Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on project requirements and performance. Your work will not involve access to confidential or proprietary information from any employer, client, or institution.

Please note: H-1B and STEM OPT candidates cannot be supported for this engagement.