Obama, Organizer-in-chief
Introduction
Throughout the 2008 U.S. presidential election, Senator Barack Obama was both praised and derided as "the messiah." References to Obama as messiah were common enough to inspire Timothy Noah of Slate Magazine to initiate the Obama Messiah Watch in early 2007, tracking extraordinary claims about Obama's larger-than-life persona. Mainstream media, including The New Republic, Rolling Stone, and Germany’s Der Spiegel, featured Obama in messianic imagery, while MSNBC’s Chris Matthews remarked, "I’ve never seen anything like this... This is the New Testament." The McCain campaign’s "The One" ad mocked this perception, but the question remains: how did a relative political outsider become the first African-American president?
The purpose of this paper is to outline the factors that led to Obama’s victory, including external conditions and strategic campaign choices. Ultimately, it will demonstrate that Obama was not "the messiah," but a skilled candidate who capitalized on favorable circumstances.
Historical and Institutional Factors
Several long-term trends set the stage for Obama’s victory:
- Eight-year party rotation: Since the 22nd Amendment (1951), U.S. voters have tended to switch parties every eight years. After two terms of Republican leadership, 2008 favored Democrats.
- Open field: The 2008 election was the first since 1928 without an incumbent president or vice president running, creating an opportunity for new leadership.
- Unpopular presidency: George W. Bush’s approval ratings averaged just 37% from 2005–2008, with a low of 25% near Election Day. This hurt McCain, who struggled to distance himself from Bush.
- War fatigue: Obama’s early opposition to the Iraq War (voiced in 2002) resonated as public support for the war declined. By 2008, casualties had dropped due to "The Surge," but the war’s unpopularity lingered.
Strategic Campaign Decisions
Obama’s campaign made key choices that secured his victory:
- Anti-war stance: Obama’s pre-war opposition to the Iraq invasion allowed him to contrast his "judgment" with Clinton’s 2002 vote to authorize the war, a liability in the primaries.
- Party unity: Despite initial divisions, Clinton endorsed Obama at the Democratic Convention, helping unify the party. Meanwhile, McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate backfired, undermining his experience advantage.
- Economic crisis response: During the 2008 financial meltdown, McCain’s erratic decision to "suspend" his campaign and rush to Washington was perceived as a stunt, while Obama projected calm leadership.
Key Events
- Sarah Palin’s nomination: McCain’s surprise VP pick energized conservatives but was widely criticized as inexperienced. Polls showed 59% of voters later deemed her unqualified for office.
- Financial collapse: The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and subsequent bailouts shifted voter focus to economic issues, where Obama’s steady demeanor contrasted with McCain’s perceived instability.
Conclusion
Obama’s victory resulted from a combination of favorable historical conditions (e.g., war fatigue, economic crisis) and strategic campaign decisions (e.g., anti-war messaging, party unity). While luck played a role, his disciplined approach ultimately secured the presidency.