Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Background, Methodology, and Platform Context

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Outcomes

• [OUTCOME]: 25%-4.0Buy - - D Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) 11%-1.0Buy - - Yulia Navalnaya 11%—Buy 8%+1.0Buy 2.5pp spread
• S Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs): 24%-4.0Buy - - Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) 11%-1.0Buy - - Yulia Navalnaya 11%—Buy 8%+1.0Buy 2.5pp spread
• S Save the Children: 9%-1.0Buy - - S Shehbaz Sharif 9%±0Buy - - Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine 7%±0Buy - - Volodymyr Zelenskyy 7%±0Buy 6%±0Buy 1.4pp spread
• UNRWA: 5%±0Buy 4%±0Buy 6%—Buy 1.9pp spread
• Pope Leo XIV: 4%±0Buy 3%+1.0Buy 5%—Buy 2.1pp spread
• Minneapolis: 4%±0Buy - - Donald Trump 3%—Buy 4%±0Buy 0.6pp spread
• Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani: 3%±0Buy - - - N Narges Mohammadi 3%±0Buy - - C Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue 3%±0Buy - - International Court of Justice (ICJ): 2%±0Buy 3%±0Buy 1.0pp spread
• Committee to Protect Journalists: 2%±0Buy - - F Francesca Albanese 2%±0Buy - - I International Criminal Court: 2%±0Buy - - António Guterres: 2%±0Buy - - - Elon Musk: 1%±0Buy 3%±0Buy 2.5pp spread
• Narendra Modi: 2%—Buy - - - Julian Assange: 2%±0Buy - - - Greta Thunberg: 1%±0Buy - - - D Dario Amodei: 1%±0Buy - - E European Union: 1%±0Buy - - S Sam Altman: 1%±0Buy - - Ahmed al-Sharaa: 1%—Buy - - - Charlie Kirk: 1%±0Buy - - - Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 1%—Buy - - - Xi Jinping: 1%—Buy - - - Khaled Mashal: 1%—Buy - - - Mohammed bin Salman: 1%—Buy - - - Vladimir Putin: 0%—Buy - - - Benjamin Netanyahu: 0%±0Buy - - - Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.5pp spread Elon Musk Buy YES 1%onPolymarket + Buy NO 97%onKalshi Cost: 98¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 2.5pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).

Matched Across Platforms

Markets matched across platforms with 85% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.