Load Forecasting Manager

San Diego Community Power (Community Power) is seeking a highly motivated and detail-oriented Load Forecasting and Analytics Manager for a critical role on the Power Services Team. This position will lead load forecasting activities and perform a full range of duties utilizing statistical techniques to support energy procurement activities.

About the role

Under the supervision of the Director of Portfolio Management, the Load Forecasting Manager will be responsible for the implementation and maintenance of Community Power's intermediate and long-term electric load forecast, as well as monitoring and analysis of forecast-to-actual results. Strong candidates will have significant load forecasting experience in the electric industry, proven statistical and data analysis abilities, knowledge of California policy and electric rate development, and will be a proactive, big-picture thinker with a strong detail orientation and ability to work collaboratively with others.

San Diego Community Power is a community-driven, not-for-profit public agency providing cleaner energy to the San Diego region. Formed in 2019, Community Power is the second largest Community Choice Aggregator (CCA) in California, serving nearly 1 million customer accounts across its member agencies: the Cities of San Diego, Chula Vista, Encinitas, Imperial Beach, La Mesa and National City, as well as the unincorporated areas of San Diego County.

Responsibilities

• Load Forecast Management: Develop multi-year, hourly load forecasts that support energy purchasing, hedging, and integrated resource planning. Develop monthly peak forecasts used to support Resource Adequacy filings with the California Public Utilities Commission. Set, monitor, and adjust projected hourly line loss factors used to calculate energy purchasing requirements. Maintain econometric models using forecast modeling software to forecast intermediate and long-term SDCP customer electric usage, energy and peak demand. Oversee SDCP's 14-day and day-ahead weather adjusted load forecasts. Assist with evaluation and improvement of short-term load forecast performance. Collaborate with internal stakeholders (including finance, regulatory, planning, and programs teams) regarding forecast methodology and analysis.
• Monitoring and Analysis: Design and implement a system to track and analyze accurate historical load forecasts monthly using industry standard methodologies including back casting and weather normalization. Support revenue forecasting, rate design (TOU, pilot rates, etc.) and cost of service analysis.
• Load Research, Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Forecasting, Statistical Analyses: Conduct "top down" macroeconomic research into factors such as population and economic growth and recession impacting long-term load forecasts. Forecast load modifiers such as distributed energy resources, energy efficiency, electric vehicles, large load customers, territory expansions, residential and commercial building code standards and other appliance adoption rates and their impact on total, peak and hourly load. Forecast impact of new rate designs including time of use rates on load. Conduct customer load segmentation and analysis to inform load forecasting and support customer program planning and design. Incorporate various other data sets such as building age and type and SIC types to understand usage patterns and inform resource planning. Support evaluation and measurement of customer programs as assigned.
• Revenue Estimation, Revenue Forecasting and Rate Setting Support: Estimate prior month revenues to support revenue accrual process and month end close. Forecast SDCP revenues at product and rate group levels. Manage and improve models used to estimate and forecast SDCP revenues based on historical load data, billing determinant forecasts, retail rates, and retail rate scenarios. Perform historical, current, and forecast revenue analysis in support of SDCP cost of service analysis. Participate in rate design and cost allocation analysis as assigned.
• Modeling and Data Management Support: Work with the Technology and Data team, SDCP's Data Analytics Manager, and SDG&E to improve reporting timeliness and accuracy of historical use and other data. Support teams in data management and use of SDCP's enterprise data platform. Support development of standard outputs formats and organization of load forecasting results within SDCP's internal data enterprise platform and provide relevant SDCP internal analysis products. Participate in improving technical processes, building and maintaining various statistical and other tools to support load analysis and forecast accuracy.
• External Forecasting Liaison: Coordinate with external entities like the California Energy Commission (CEC), California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), CalCCA, and others as needed for coordination on utility forecasting assumptions. Participate frequently in CEC IEPR forecast process via filings and represent SDCP at intermediate Demand Analysis Working Group (DWAG) meetings. Follow IEPR load forecasting methodology changes with respect to load modifiers, state policy objectives, and regulations. Participate in load forecasting industry groups and conferences; remain up to date with the latest load forecasting proactive trends and research. Provide leadership on issues related to load forecasting and research. Present proposed changes to load forecast and other load research findings to SDCP management as needed.

Requirements

• Knowledge and experience with econometric methods, tools, and software.
• Mathematical background and strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
• Familiarity with database languages such as SQL, R, or Python and other related applications as well as analytics/business intelligence platforms such as PowerBI and Tableau is a plus.
• Ability to balance multiple priorities to meet deadlines.
• Strong work ethic and comfort taking initiative.
• Professional communications skills, in writing and verbally, as this role works in collaboration with staff and external SDCP contacts.
• Proficiency with Microsoft Office Suite, Word, Excel and PowerPoint and ability to use virtual meeting and calendaring applications.
• Ability to communicate and collaborate effectively with a variety of individuals representing diverse cultures, backgrounds, and languages.

Qualifications

Any combination of education and experience that would provide the knowledge and abilities listed. A typical way to obtain the required qualifications would be:

• A bachelor's degree or higher from an accredited college or university in economics, statistics, data science or related mathematic field, with at least five years' experience in load forecasting or equivalent.
• Desired: Experience with the utility industry, working for an electric investor-owned or public utility company, a Community Choice Aggregator, or similar electric sector company.
• Desired: Master's degree in statistics, econometrics, data science, or closely related field.
• Desired: Expertise with database languages such as SQL, R, or Python and other related applications, familiarity with machine learning and business intelligence platforms.
• Desired: Experience and knowledge of statistical modeling techniques such as GLM multiple regression, logistic regression, log-linear regression, time series, stochastic, probabilistic for reliability, and Bass Diffusion modeling techniques.

Work Environment & Conditions

• Prolonged periods of sitting at a desk and working on a computer.
• The position requires occasional carrying, lifting and/or moving objects up to 25 pounds.
• Occasional local travel required; reliable transportation is expected to attend SDCP events, meetings, and workshops as needed.
• Hybrid work schedule set by SDCP.
• SDCP requires employees to be fully vaccinated for COVID-19. Exemptions will be considered for individuals with medical conditions or sincerely held religious beliefs that prohibit vaccination, consistent with governing labor laws.
• A successful candidate accepting this position may be required to file Conflict of Interest forms subject to the regulations of the Fair Political Practices Commission.

Pay

Salary Range: $117,800 to $159,000 USD, with exact compensation determined by SDCP depending upon experience.

Benefits

• Insurance: Group health benefits including medical, vision, and dental insurance for eligible full-time employees. Also provided is a $100,000 Life & AD&D policy, STD and LTD coverage that is 100% paid by SDCP.
• Retirement: SDCP offers a 457(b) plan for employee contributions and contributes 10% of eligible compensation to the employee's Money Purchase Plan.
• Paid Time Off: 11 holidays per year + paid winter holiday (between 12/24-12/31), 160 hours of accrued paid time off per year (increases with time in service), and 96 hours per year of accrued paid sick leave.