Prediction Markets Analyst

About the role

You’ll research and price real-world events — from politics and sports to economics and crypto — building probability estimates and monitoring markets across Polymarket and Kalshi. It’s a research-driven seat in a fast-emerging asset class, blending quantitative modelling with sharp judgment about how the world actually resolves.

Responsibilities

• Monitor active event markets in real time across Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Develop and backtest fair-value and probability models using historical data, Bayesian updating, and news and sentiment signals.
• Research which real-world events are viable to trade, weighing demand, competition, and clarity of resolution.
• Track cross-platform pricing discrepancies and event-driven momentum across politics, sports, economics, and crypto-adjacent markets.
• Evaluate market rules and resolution criteria to keep views fair and dispute-proof.
• Maintain an ongoing research process on current events — news, polling, and on-chain data — to inform probability views.
• Partner with engineers on API integrations and monitoring tools.
• Run root-cause analysis when markets misprice or resolve unexpectedly.

Requirements

• A bachelor’s degree in a quantitative or related field (Statistics, Economics, Finance, Computer Science, or Mathematics).
• A strong grasp of probability, statistics, and Bayesian reasoning.
• Strong Python for data analysis (pandas, NumPy).
• Genuine, demonstrated engagement with prediction markets — a personal forecasting or trading track record is a big plus.
• Strong written and verbal communication for drafting rules and working across teams.
• Detail orientation that balances real-time monitoring with longer-horizon research.
• Fluency in English is required.

Nice to have

• A track record of profitable trading in prediction markets, options, or event-driven strategies.
• Blockchain/DeFi familiarity (on-chain settlement, USDC, Polygon) for platforms like Polymarket.
• Familiarity with prediction-market APIs or adjacent domains such as options or event betting.
• NLP or machine-learning experience for sentiment or fair-value modelling.

Benefits

• Competitive base salary with a meaningful performance-based bonus.
• A front-row seat in a fast-emerging asset class.
• A meritocratic, collaborative culture where the best ideas win.
• Access to data, tooling, and a team that takes forecasting seriously.
• Comprehensive health and wellness benefits.
• Based in our New York office.