Manager, Forecast Analytics & Planning

Description Role summaryThis role is the analytical and technical lead for Arden, our most SKU-heavy and operationally complex brand, which is manufactured in the US and sold primarily through eCommerce with some brick-and-mortar. You will forecast and plan the Arden business, and you will help build the forecasting and analytics framework that our Brand and Private Label teams run on. You will also coach a junior analyst and help raise the analytical standard across the team.This is a hands-on role. You will build models, run the numbers, and explain what they mean to people who are not analysts.What you will ownArden forecasting and replenishment: Own demand forecasts across ecommerce marketplaces and brick-and-mortar accounts for a high-SKU-count, US-manufactured portfolio. Partner with production and purchasing so forecasts translate into workable supply plans.Forecasting methodology: Build and maintain a common framework for Brand and Private Label, in partnership with the VP: item segmentation (high runners, long tail, new items; ABC/XYZ), a library of models with channel-specific drivers, shared accuracy and bias metrics (such as MAPE), and a consistent review cadence. The goal is a standard framework, not one model for every business.Analytics and insight: Use POS, sell-through, and sales data to explain what is happening, where trends are moving, and what needs to change. Lead price elasticity, cannibalization, and SKU portfolio analyses, starting with Arden and extending to Private Label as it grows.Data and reporting: Own the core Power BI datasets and SQL-based tools. Document them, keep them maintainable by others, and maintain a single set of metric definitions so everyone works from the same data.Coaching: Develop the Forecasting Analyst through clear goals and stretch projects, and support adoption of team standards across the other forecasters.S&OP input: Provide analytical inputs to the S&OP cycle, working closely with internal partners on the link between forecast, purchasing, and inventory.What we are looking forExperience: 5+ years in demand forecasting, planning, or analytics in consumer products, eCommerce, or retail, ideally including a complex SKU portfolio.Technical skills: Strong SQL and a BI tool (Power BI preferred); Python or R for statistical forecasting; comfortable using AI tools to accelerate analysis and build.Forecasting depth: Time-series and causal methods, handling of promotions, seasonality, new items, and intermittent demand; practical experience measuring and improving forecast accuracy and bias.Communication: Turns analysis into a clear recommendation for non-technical leaders and presents the data objectively, including when it does not support a preferred story.People skills: Experience coaching or developing a more junior analyst. Formal management experience is a plus but not required.Preferred: Amazon Vendor Central or other marketplace experience; manufacturing or make-to-order planning exposure; home goods or pet category; S&OP participation.How success is measuredArden forecast accuracy and bias improve against an agreed baseline.Segmentation and accuracy reporting are adopted by the full forecast team.Core reports and tools are documented and supportable by someone other than you.The Forecasting Analyst has a development plan and is taking on defined analytics projects.Stakeholders report clearer, more trusted insight.First 90 days30 days: Learn Arden, review current models and tools, complete knowledge transfer from the outgoing role, and meet key partners.60 days: Baseline forecast accuracy and bias, propose segmentation and the methodology framework, and agree on a development plan with the Forecasting Analyst.90 days: Present the methodology roadmap and first analytics findings (for example, an Arden SKU portfolio view) to the VP, Forecasting & Category Management.Central Garden & Pet Company (NASDAQ: CENT) (NASDAQ: CENTA) is a leading consumer goods company in the pet and garden industries. Guided by the belief that home is central to life, the Company's purpose is to proudly nurture happy and healthy homes. For over 45 years, its innovative and trusted solutions have helped lawns grow greener, gardens bloom bigger, pets live healthier, and communities grow stronger. Central is home to a diversified portfolio of market-leading brands including Amdro®, Aqueon®, Best Bully Sticks®, Cadet®, C&S®, Farnam®, Ferry-Morse®, Kaytee®, Nylabone®, Pennington®, Sevin® and Zoёcon®. With fiscal 2025 net sales of $3.1 billion, Central has strong manufacturing and logistics capabilities supported by a passionate, entrepreneurial growth culture. The Company is headquartered in Walnut Creek, California, and employs over 6,000 people, primarily across North America. Visit www.central.com to learn more.We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, sexual orientation, gender identity, or any other characteristic protected by law.We may use artificial intelligence (AI) tools to support parts of the hiring process, such as reviewing applications, analyzing resumes, or assessing responses. These tools assist our recruitment team but do not replace human judgment. Final hiring decisions are ultimately made by humans. If you would like more information about how your data is processed, please contact us.