Kentucky

Analysis of state-to-state migration patterns and economic indicators for Kentucky, based on 2022–2023 federal income tax filings and other data sources.

Overview

• Cost of living: 10% below the U.S. average (index: 90)
• Median home value: $192,300 (national: $303,400)
• Home price appreciation (5 years): +46.9%
• Median rent: $933/month (national: $1,348)
• Homeownership rate: 68% (national: 65%)
• Unemployment rate (2023): 4.2% (national: 3.6%)
• Median household income: $62,417 (national: $78,538)
• Median age: 39.1 years (national: 38.7)

Migration Summary (2022–2023 Filing Year)

• Net gain of 2,063 tax-filing households and 5,850 individuals
• Net migration rate: +1.3 people per 1,000 residents (population: 4,526,154)
• Net loss of $121.2M in adjusted gross income (AGI) (nominal dollars)
• Gross income inflow: $3B; outflow: $3.1B

Top Origin and Destination States

Top Origin States (Inbound Migration)

• Ohio: 6,769 households ($413.3M AGI)
• Tennessee: 5,516 households ($294.5M AGI)
• Indiana: 5,294 households ($277.3M AGI)
• Florida: 4,792 households ($278.8M AGI)
• Texas: 2,430 households ($159.1M AGI)

Top Destination States (Outbound Migration)

• Ohio: 6,362 households ($362.6M AGI)
• Indiana: 5,940 households ($336.8M AGI)
• Tennessee: 5,634 households ($313.4M AGI)
• Florida: 4,578 households ($511.3M AGI)
• Texas: 2,642 households ($186.2M AGI)

Churn by State (Two-Way Migration)

Largest two-way exchanges of filing households (2022–2023):

• Ohio: 6,769 inbound, 6,362 outbound (+407 net households, +$50.7M AGI)
• Indiana: 5,294 inbound, 5,940 outbound (-646 net households, -$59.5M AGI)
• Tennessee: 5,516 inbound, 5,634 outbound (-118 net households, -$18.9M AGI)
• Florida: 4,792 inbound, 4,578 outbound (+214 net households, -$232.5M AGI)
• California: 2,215 inbound, 1,362 outbound (+853 net households, +$76.9M AGI)

Net Migration Trends (2012–2023)

Net AGI and net people by year (nominal dollars):

• 2012: +$61.4M AGI, -2,271 people
• 2013: -$75.8M AGI, -4,340 people
• 2014: -$299.8M AGI, -7,769 people
• 2015: -$226.6M AGI, -3,866 people
• 2016: -$239.6M AGI, -3,948 people
• 2017: -$43.9M AGI, +189 people
• 2018: -$302.2M AGI, +244 people
• 2019: -$199.9M AGI, -1,060 people
• 2020: -$271.6M AGI, +5,544 people
• 2021: -$117.3M AGI, +6,424 people
• 2022: +$43.5M AGI, +8,483 people
• 2023: -$121.2M AGI, +5,850 people

Cumulative net migration (2012–2023): -$1.8B AGI, +3,480 people.

Demographics

• Median age: 39.1 years
• Median household income: $62,417 (21% below U.S. median)
• College degree attainment: 27% of adults 25+
• Poverty rate: 16.1%
• Average commute time: 24 minutes
• Broadband access: 87% of households
• Race/ethnicity (share of residents):
  • White: 82%
  • Hispanic: 5%
  • Black: 8%
  • Asian: 2%
  • Other: 4%

Housing

• Median home value: $192,300 (37% below U.S. median)
• Median rent: $933/month (31% below U.S. median)
• Homeownership rate: 68%
• Home-price appreciation (2022–2023): +7.9%
• Home-price appreciation (2018–2023): +47%
• New housing units authorized (2023): 15,415 (51% single-family, 49% multifamily)

Cost of Living and Income

• Price level: 89.9 (10.1% below U.S. average)
• Income per person: $55,667 (20% below U.S. average)
• Purchasing power: $61,928 (12% below U.S. average)
• Price parity by category:
  • Housing & rents: 62.9
  • Goods: 94.5
  • Utilities: 80.9
  • Other services: 97.9

Economy and Labor Market

• Unemployment rate (2023): 4.2%
• Labor force: 2,057,308 (1,969,940 employed)
• Major federal disaster declarations (2023): 2 (most common: severe storms)

Migration by Income Bracket (2022–2023)

Net migration of tax-filing households by adjusted gross income (AGI):

• $1–$10k: +273 households (+$1M AGI)
• $10k–$25k: +778 households (+$13.2M AGI)
• $25k–$50k: +219 households (+$7.9M AGI)
• $50k–$75k: +229 households (+$14.6M AGI)
• $75k–$100k: +335 households (+$29.8M AGI)
• $100k–$200k: +244 households (+$30.9M AGI)
• $200k+: -63 households (-$217.9M AGI)

Among the highest earners ($200k+), Kentucky ranks #25 of 51 states for net household migration.

Goods Trade (2022)

• Total shipped to other states: $249.7B (+43% since 2017)
• Total received from other states: $233.2B (+36% since 2017)
• Net balance: +$16.6B

Top goods shipped out:

• Motorized and other vehicles (includes parts): $89.3B
• Textiles, leather, and articles: $39.3B
• Base metal (primary/semi-finished forms): $24.6B
• Gasoline and aviation turbine fuel: $20.7B
• Mixed freight: $20.1B

Top goods received:

• Electronic and electrical equipment: $32.0B