Consumer confidence at near two-year high as World Cup and UK holidaying lift summer spending

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Consumer confidence reached its highest level in almost two years in July, driven by the men’s football World Cup, increased domestic holidays, and reduced geopolitical uncertainty. A Barclays survey found 30% of respondents felt confident about the UK economy—a 21-month high—while consumer card spending grew 2% year-on-year, with discretionary spending up 1.6%.

Key Trends

• Pubs saw a 10% rise in transactions due to England’s World Cup run, adding an estimated £150m in sales.
• Cinema spending increased 2.6%, boosted by films like Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey.
• Domestic holidays surged, with UK accommodation spending up 2.6%, while airline ticket sales declined amid heatwaves.
• European economic confidence hit a record high (35%), per Barclays’ tracking since 2015.

Retail Performance

• Food sales grew 3.8% year-on-year (British Retail Consortium), while clothing retailers benefited from summer demand.
• Big-ticket items like furniture and electronics saw reduced spending, with consumers prioritizing "smaller indulgences" (e.g., beauty products, fashion jewelry).
• Retailers reported mixed results: H&M, John Lewis, and Zara faced tough trading, while HMV saw a 12% rise in store visitors, driven by toy sales to children.
• Next upgraded profit guidance for the third time in 2024, citing sunny weather and improved economic sentiment.

Economic Outlook

The new prime minister’s policies and a June truce in the Middle East conflict contributed to reduced uncertainty. A Recruitment and Employment Confederation survey showed employer confidence rising (permanent placements balance at 50.0 in July—the first expansion since September 2022), though economists caution sentiment could shift with renewed geopolitical tensions.